"A media house is a business firm. It is unwise and imbecile of the audience to expect ethical and moral treatment of information from them!", remarked a vehement Jeemon Jacob (an award-winning investigative journalist and the South Indian chief of the Tehelka, upon meeting him at an event recently). True to his word, I have had my own misgivings on the authenticity and moderation various telecasts by all the media houses. But alas, we have let ourselves be engrossed in this mug's game.
The corporate run national media has yet again proved how manipulative of the public opinion it can be. In a swashbuckling post-poll coverage, every national channel seems to be in a contest on awarding vague and far-fetched numbers to the in-fray fronts. The channels have managed to create a bedlam among the public and a sense of optimism in the markets(things are looking bullish at Dalal Street with the Sensex soaring to all time highs, in the hopes of a stable conglomeration at Sansad Bhavan).
I cannot be in agreement with these hyperbolic projections for more than one reasons :
1.Wave or a Monsoon?
Irrespective of how many parsecs Mr.Modi criss-crosses across the subcontinent, a Modi wave, tsunami or typhoon or not, BJP+(tantamount to the NDA) has its own demographic and geographic barriers. Even if it manages to sweep the Hindi heartland like a north-western Monsoon, the alliance making inroads into states where the principal party, ie. wherein the BJP has a scanty footfall like Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, etc looks highly unlikely. All these states hold a massive chunk of the seats, and since the age of coalitions, it is a well-understood fact that it is impossible to form a stable government at the centre without the players from one of these states.
2. The Curious case of Uttar Pradesh
In what is phrased as a "nightmare for the psephologist", the state of U.P is a very tumultous issue. The margin of error could stand as high as +/- 15-20 seats, which could make the whole difference between the Modi bandwagon wheeling to 7RCR or not. Uttar Pradesh is a brewing cauldron. In the wake of the Muzzafarnagar riots, the western part of the state has witnessed an unprecendented polarization(not since the Ram Janmabhoomi movt led by Mr.Advani). The sprouting of the so called social coalitions have virtually decimated a whole host of traditional vote banks. With the non-Yadav OBCs and the Pasis rallying behind BJP and a fragmentation of the anti Modi muslim votes, western U.P becomes a safe bet for the BJP. At the same time, a great worry should be the uncertainity of the Poorvanchal(eastern U.P). Any undercurrents in the final few phases of polling towards the Bahujan Samaj Party doesn't seem very unlikely. In any case, a 50+ tally for the BJP in UP will be nothing short of a miracle.
3. The Regional Spoilsports
Most of these polls have persistently underestimated the presence of regional satraps. A vote against the incumbent is seen as a straight vote for the BJP. It is a highly precarious assumption to make in states like Bihar, where a resurgence of Lalu Prasad Yadav is sensed among the voters. The RJD-Cong alliance in Bihar is expected to notch up a meagre 10-14 seats out of a possible 40. For a party that has a goodwill and an organisational cadre-based network in the remotest corners of the state, 10-14 is a very underrated number. Similar is the case with debutant YSR Congress in Seemandhra. Though polls are prediciting a landslide win for the TDP-BJP in Seemandhra, the sympathy for late YSR and his populist schemes still has immense patronage in the coastal and Rayalaseema regions of Seemandhra. Also, there is a sense among the electorate that Jagan was the lone warrior who stood against the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh. He could emerge as a dark-horse in the three way battle for the all crucial Seemandhra. These two states could throw up some very surprising results.
4. A flimsy national picture:
The national picture, or the "crunch numbers" projected at the end of the state wise dissection is more of a crude extrapolation (adding on to it the weightage of groundswell), rather than a cumulative representation of the state-wise figures. There is an extensive discrepancy between the two and state-wise numbers never add up to what is being claimed. The harsh fact as I mentioned before, is that there are pockets in this nation wherein the charisma of Mr.Modi cannot do the weightlifting to give his party an emphatic victory, though a marginal improvement in the vote share can be expected. It has also failed to incorporate the patterns of states like Karnataka and Rajasthan which has a history of voting against the trend in previous elections.
What is more irksome for the viewers is the incessant pow-vowing of these predictions. With over-sized panels and begotic politicians on board, you seem to wonder where is this cacophony heading to. Rather than letting the voters relax and breathe , after a month-long exposure to a campaign that was vociferous,vitriolic, exhaustive, unapologetic and fierce, the fourth-estate is in a race to beat an invisible record which they set for themselves. The results are poised to be out in less than 96 hours, and they should be reminded that our people have a highly tolerant character(India has the one among the lowest divorce rates in the world. No puns) In the cross currents of TRPs and catering true-genuine information, the fourth estate seems to have chosen the former.
Hence, considering all these factors, it is more likely that BJP+ may very well fall short of the projected numbers. My instinct, encompassing all the numerous factors like popular vote, anti incumbency, pro-incumbency, visceral sentiments of minorities, the geographic and demographic barriers, the BJP+ could end up with a 210-230 tally, which is a very much formidable and logical number to run a coalition, though it thwarts the "wave" or the "mission 272+". And on a personal note, it is always healthy not to give a single party the clear mandate. A 272- NDA(present) can be more regionally representative by alluring regional factions from across the country, which wouldn't need a herculean effort. As and when Mr.Modi crosses the 200 mark, he will be unstoppable. Hitherto, 272 doesn't look like a magical figure anymore. All the critics and regional moghüls who clamoured and digressed the public discourse to a Communalism vs Secularism debate, will kiss his ring to claim a sip from the holy grail(Sharad Pawar has epitomized this political chameleonism more than once).
This season, suprisingly, the Election commision has posed as a very timid institution. Mr.Sampath (the opposition pointing out the homophone betweem "Sampath" and "10 janpath"), has terribly failed in maintaining the decorum for a free and fair election. The timidity is as white as milk, when the media giants managed to override the suggestion put forth by the CEC not to air post-poll verdicts on Monday as polling in certain booths in Telengana was pending. It comes as a surprise, because the same EC under Mr.T.N.Sheshan was known for holding the whip against anybody who dared the institution. Mr.Seshan's contribution to Indian elections can never be forgotten, and is indicative from the largely peaceful campaigns and polling in the 90s. The commision imminently needs to revise the rules relating to on-ground malpractices as well as its jurisdiction on mass & social media, to restore the credibility of the constitutional body and the faith deposed in it by the 800 million voters. The autonomy of the institution must mean that none have the authority to ride roughshod over the organisation. It should be well equipped to hold firm to the ground.
On the 16th of May, when the curtains fall on the most important electoral process our country has seen, hearts may be shattered, ambitions may plunder, hopes maybe rekindled and new doors may open for the future our country. In what is called a landmark democratic process in the world, the world will yet again witness, how the largest democracy in the world has managed to hold-fast to its principles and not let it go astray. With countries like China holding elections for a trivial cause anymore, transparent elections in India are indicative of the tolerant and optimistic nature of our deeply ingrained culture. We must all take immense pride in this quinquennial spectacle.
On the strike of 8 a.m , when counting begins, the news traders will put a plethora of issues under the knife : post-result equations, shift of allegiences, et al, a few pairs of eyes like mine will also be verifying the credibility of the hyperbolic claims.
As the age old aphorism goes, "May the Best man win".
India awaits. Tick tock.
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